The World Meteorological Organization have been estimating the chances of the world breaking the 1.5C threshold in any one year since 2020. Now, researchers say there is a 66% chance of passing the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027, which has jumped up from a 50% chance last year, and only a 20% chance back in 2020.
The 1.5C figure serves as an indicator of how much or little Earth has warmed or cooled by comparison to the long-term global average. Hitting the threshold means that the world is 1.5C warmer than during the second half of the 19th Century, before our industrialized world increased our modern dependence on coal, oil and gas. Emissions from human activities and the El Nino weather pattern are said to be driving these heightened chances.
Going over 1.5C every year for a decade or two would result in intensified impacts of warming, including more extreme heatwaves, storms, and wildfires. Scientists say however, there is still time to limit global warming by sharply cutting emissions.